Thursday, 8 April 2010

My Prediction

It's well known that no political journalists like to make predictions, because the truth is none of them know what they're talking about half the time, and - despite not being anything close to a political journalist - my ignorance is no less hidden but I have the benefit of having no reputation to secure, so I'm going to go ahead and make my predicition now.

I think that, in a month's time, the Tories will have a 25 seat majority.

There, I said it. If you have one, please comment with it!


  1. If you remember at sgs I was spot on with the election and won the sweepstakes. I think the Tories will have a majority of 60 seats, if they use theright strategy. Labour and the Tories could both get 38% of the vote but labour could have just under a 100 seat majority. Either way, a record low turnout me thinks!

  2. Hmm, that's interesting. I'm absolutely at a loss of how to call the turnout. On the one hand, cynicism and hatred of politicians (and politics) is at an all time high, and there is no Obama figure to suggest that real change can occur. On the other hand, this is a 1992-style election where the tide has really turned against the incumbant government, and that tends to get those who ARE a bit interested more engaged in it than they might otherwise be. They'd vote anyway, but perhaps their evangelising might encourage others to as well.

    Voter turnout in 92 was the highest since the 70's, but as I say, it's very difficult to call imo. I'd wager over 65% (which is higher than 2005 and 2001) but that's as far as I'd go.